Model-driven statistical arbitrage on LETF option markets

In this paper, we study the statistical properties of the moneyness scaling transformation, which adjusts the moneyness coordinate of the implied volatility smile in an attempt to remove the discrepancy between the IV smiles for levered and unlevered ETF options. We construct bootstrap uniform confidence bands which indicate that the implied volatility smiles are statistically different after moneyness scaling has been performed. An empirical application shows that there are trading opportunities possible on the LETF market. A statistical arbitrage type strategy based on a dynamic semiparametric factor model is presented. This strategy presents a statistical decision algorithm which generates trade recommendations based on comparison of model and observed LETF implied volatility surface. It is shown to generate positive returns with a high probability. Extensive econometric analysis of the LETF implied volatility process is performed including out-of-sample forecasting based on a semiparametric factor model and a uniform confidence bands' study. These provide new insights into the latent dynamics of the implied volatility surface. We also incorporate Heston stochastic volatility into the moneyness scaling method for better tractability of the model.     

Time series momentum trading strategy and autocorrelation amplification

This paper investigates why general Moving Average (MA) trading rules are widely used by technical analysts and others. We assume general stationary processes for prices and we derive the autocorrelation function for an MA trading rule. Based on our results, we conjecture that autocorrelation amplification is one of the reasons why such trading rules are popular. Using simulated results, we show that the MA rule may be popular because it can identify price momentum and is a simple way of assessing and exploiting the price autocorrelation structure without necessarily knowing its precise structure. This paper then, provides empirical evidence of autocorrelation amplification using 15-year daily price data for 11 major international stock indices.     

The Epistemic Consumption Object and Postsocial Consumption: Expanding Consumer‐Object Theory in Consumer Research

We introduce the concept of the epistemic consumption object. Such consumption objects are characterized by two interrelated features. First, epistemic consumption objects reveal themselves progressively through interaction, observation, use, examination, and evaluation. Such layered revelation is accompanied by an increasing rather than a decline of the object’s complexity. Second, such objects demonstrate a propensity to change their “face‐in‐action” vis‐à‐vis consumers through the continuous addition or subtraction of properties. The epistemic consumption object is materially elusive and this lack of ontological stability turns the object into a continuous knowledge project for consumers. Via this ongoing cycle of revelation and discovery, consumers become attached to the object in intimate and quasi‐social ways. Therefore, the concept of the epistemic consumption object brings the “object” directly into theorizations of consumer‐object relations, extending current theories of relationship, product involvement, and consumption communities. We draw from research with individual online investors to illustrate the theory of the epistemic consumption object.     

商品金融化与产品定价机制变革——从近代欧洲大宗商品交易中心形成过程谈起

近年来,在金融全球化背景下,商品金融化趋势愈加显著。商品金融化并非新生事物,早在近代欧洲,一些大宗商品贸易已开始被赋予金融属性。本文从近代欧洲大宗商品交易中心的形成过程的历史视角研究商品金融化与产品定价机制变革关系,对荷兰的大宗商品交易中心发展过程及商品金融属性的表现特征研究发现,各类金融衍生工具在近代初期已从商品交易中发展起来,并在阿姆斯特丹商品市场上大量应用。由于过分依赖资本收益,国内产业衰落,荷兰商品交易中心地位没能保持下去,在工业革命前半个世纪甚至更早,欧洲商品交易中心从阿姆斯特丹转移至伦敦。从交易中心的形成与转移,可以看到商品金融化进程中基本条件的意义与作用,以及商品金融化问题的本质。这同时揭示出当代商品金融化趋势与产品定价机制变革的关系。     

EU ETS碳排放权期货研究综述

全球气候问题受到各国政府及国际组织的广泛重视,减少温室气体排放已经成为国际社会关注的焦点之一。以欧盟排放交易体系（EU ETS）为例,将有关碳排放权期货的研究文献进行梳理,并按照碳排放权配额的分配方案、影响碳排放权配额价格的主要因素以及碳排放权期货价格和现货价格之间的关系三方面展开,最后简述国际碳排放权市场给我国带来的启示。     

Choice and design of regulatory instruments in the presence of green consumers

Using a vertically differentiated product model, this paper examines welfare implications of various government policies in a situation where consumers are environmentally discerning. It studies ad valorem taxes/subsidies and emission taxes. The optimal policy depends on the magnitude of damage parameter associated with environmental externality. For a given distribution of tastes and preferences, as the damage parameter increases from a low to a high value, the optimal policy shifts from an ad valorem tax to an ad valorem subsidy. It also shows that for a sufficiently low damage parameter, an ad valorem tax dominates an emission tax.     

The Lack of International Consumption Risk Sharing: Can Inflation Differentials and Trading Costs Help Explain the Puzzle?

The bulk of evidence on the lack of international risk sharing is based on regressions of idiosyncratic consumption growth on idiosyncratic output growth. This paper argues that the results from such regressions obtained from international data are, however, not directly comparable to those based on regional data: the standard practice of running such regressions on international data fails to account for persistent international differentials in consumer prices, whereas—implicitly—most of the literature based on regional data has accounted for these differences. When risk sharing regressions are set up in conceptually the same way in international and regional data sets, the estimated coefficients are also very similar. To explore this result further, we adapt the variance decomposition of Asdrubali et al. (Q J Econ 111:1081–1110, 1996) to allow for deviations from purchasing power parity across countries. While quantity (income and credit) flows are the dominant channel of risk sharing among regions, relative consumption and output price (internal terms of trade) fluctuations account for the bulk of the deviation from the complete markets outcome in international data. To the extent that persistent differences in consumer prices are an indication of goods market segmentation, our findings provide empirical evidence for the proposition by Obstfeld and Rogoff (NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, 2000) that segmented international goods markets rather than asset market incompleteness may account for the (apparent) lack of risk sharing between countries.

巴萨效应在中国适用性的实证分析

在解释一国经济增长同该国货币的实际汇率关系问题上,"巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应"是最具影响力的理论之一。该模型自提出后,在很大程度上对购买力平价理论进行了修正和扩展,并在世界范围内取得了实证经验。鉴于工资传导机制在该理论推导中的重要地位,本文将其作为切入点,采用实证分析方法证明该理论在中国不能直接适用并进一步提出了中国劳动力市场的特殊性是巴萨效应适用冲突的重要原因之一。     

关于推动中朝边境经贸合作的新突破——黄金坪经济区开发建设的几点建议

区域经济一体化的蓬勃发展使边境区域经贸合作迎来了良好的机遇。辽宁省丹东市作为我国最大的对朝贸易商品集散地,与朝鲜在资源要素上具有较强的互补性,合作潜力巨大。2011年6月8日,由中朝合作开发的黄金坪经济区正式破土动工。这就意味着中朝经贸合作又有了一个崭新的平台。本文从指导原则、合作模式、中方平台、发展定位、配套区、优惠政策、人才储备及国际参与等八个方面提出了推动黄金坪经济区开发建设的几点建议。     

融资融券交易监管的原则探析

融资融券具有较大的风险,因此必须对其进行监管。而监管原则作为统领融资融券监管的灵魂和精髓,对于融资融券交易的发展和完善具有重要的意义和作用。根据融资融券交易的特质和国外的先进经验,应确立公平原则、成本收益原则、本土化检验原则、合作原则以及有适当例外原则。